Convex Optimization-based Policy Adaptation to Compensate for Distributional Shifts

Many real-world systems often involve physical components or operating environments with highly nonlinear and uncertain dynamics. A number of different control algorithms can be used to design optimal controllers for such systems, assuming a reasonably high-fidelity model of the actual system. However, the assumptions made on the stochastic dynamics of the model when designing the optimal controller may no longer be valid when the system is deployed in the real-world. The problem addressed by this paper is the following: Suppose we obtain an optimal trajectory by solving a control problem in the training environment, how do we ensure that the real-world system trajectory tracks this optimal trajectory with minimal amount of error in a deployment environment. In other words, we want to learn how we can adapt an optimal trained policy to distribution shifts in the environment. Distribution shifts are problematic in safety-critical systems, where a trained policy may lead to unsafe outcomes during deployment. We show that this problem can be cast as a nonlinear optimization problem that could be solved using heuristic method such as particle swarm optimization (PSO). However, if we instead consider a convex relaxation of this problem, we can learn policies that track the optimal trajectory with much better error performance, and faster computation times. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on tracking an optimal path using a Dubin's car model, and collision avoidance using both a linear and nonlinear model for adaptive cruise control

Conformance Testing as Falsification for Cyber-Physical Systems

In Model-Based Design of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), it is often desirable to develop several models of varying fidelity. Models of different fidelity levels can enable mathematical analysis of the model, control synthesis, faster simulation etc. Furthermore, when (automatically or manually) transitioning from a model to its implementation on an actual computational platform, then again two different versions of the same system are being developed. In all previous cases, it is necessary to define a rigorous notion of conformance between different models and between models and their implementations. This paper argues that conformance should be a measure of distance between systems. Albeit a range of theoretical distance notions exists, a way to compute such distances for industrial size systems and models has not been proposed yet. This paper addresses exactly this problem. A universal notion of conformance as closeness between systems is rigorously defined, and evidence is presented that this implies a number of other application-dependent conformance notions. An algorithm for detecting that two systems are not conformant is then proposed, which uses existing proven tools. A method is also proposed to measure the degree of conformance between two systems. The results are demonstrated on a range of models

Data-Driven Reachability Analysis of Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Conformal Inference

We consider data-driven reachability analysis of discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems using conformal inference. We assume that we are not provided with a symbolic representation of the stochastic system, but instead have access to a dataset of $K$-step trajectories. The reachability problem is to construct a probabilistic flowpipe such that the probability that a $K$-step trajectory can violate the bounds of the flowpipe does not exceed a user-specified failure probability threshold. The key ideas in this paper are: (1) to learn a surrogate predictor model from data, (2) to perform reachability analysis using the surrogate model, and (3) to quantify the surrogate model's incurred error using conformal inference in order to give probabilistic reachability guarantees. We focus on learning-enabled control systems with complex closed-loop dynamics that are difficult to model symbolically, but where state transition pairs can be queried, e.g., using a simulator. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on examples from the domain of learning-enabled cyber-physical systems

Conformance Testing for Stochastic Cyber-Physical Systems

Conformance is defined as a measure of distance between the behaviors of two dynamical systems. The notion of conformance can accelerate system design when models of varying fidelities are available on which analysis and control design can be done more efficiently. Ultimately, conformance can capture distance between design models and their real implementations and thus aid in robust system design. In this paper, we are interested in the conformance of stochastic dynamical systems. We argue that probabilistic reasoning over the distribution of distances between model trajectories is a good measure for stochastic conformance. Additionally, we propose the non-conformance risk to reason about the risk of stochastic systems not being conformant. We show that both notions have the desirable transference property, meaning that conformant systems satisfy similar system specifications, i.e., if the first model satisfies a desirable specification, the second model will satisfy (nearly) the same specification. Lastly, we propose how stochastic conformance and the non-conformance risk can be estimated from data using statistical tools such as conformal prediction. We present empirical evaluations of our method on an F-16 aircraft, an autonomous vehicle, a spacecraft, and Dubin's vehicle

Conformal Prediction for STL Runtime Verification

We are interested in predicting failures of cyber-physical systems during their operation. Particularly, we consider stochastic systems and signal temporal logic specifications, and we want to calculate the probability that the current system trajectory violates the specification. The paper presents two predictive runtime verification algorithms that predict future system states from the current observed system trajectory. As these predictions may not be accurate, we construct prediction regions that quantify prediction uncertainty by using conformal prediction, a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification. Our first algorithm directly constructs a prediction region for the satisfaction measure of the specification so that we can predict specification violations with a desired confidence. The second algorithm constructs prediction regions for future system states first, and uses these to obtain a prediction region for the satisfaction measure. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first formal guarantees for a predictive runtime verification algorithm that applies to widely used trajectory predictors such as RNNs and LSTMs, while being computationally simple and making no assumptions on the underlying distribution. We present numerical experiments of an F-16 aircraft and a self-driving car